About a month ago I mentioned that it was possible the market could find resistance near the old highs on the S&P 500 index and perhaps make a seven-year double top. Interestingly, yesterday marked the third straight day the market could not register a new closing high on the S&P 500 (1,527 and change).
I'm not really into short-term market predictions (You're better off just flipping a coin if you want to know what will happen in coming days), but we are setting up for a near-term top unless we can break through this level. Oddly, the all-time intra-day high is above 1,550. That must have been a wild day back in March 2000.
Here is what the last decade looks like on the SPX:
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Market Fails to Dismiss Double Top Scenario
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5 comments:
I am a bit wary of the S&P's inability to push passed its all-time high here but I guess it is about time for us to see a little resistance to what has been a pretty nice little run for the Dow and S&P. That being said, given that we're looking at a period of 7 years isn't it a bit early to say the market is at all stalling at this level?
Hi Dan,
I'm not making a prediction that it will definitely fail to break through here, just pointing out the possibility. It has definitely stalled, but whether four days is enough of a stalling out period to say the rally is done or not remains to be seen.
If Greenspan had said nothing about China's markets we might have broken through.
The point of long term analysis is excellent. It might be a double, it might not. How many people look back more than a couple of years?
Nice job
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chisoccer,
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