If you believe Best Buy to be a good proxy for retail...
Best Buy 3Q Profit Rises, Boosts Outlook
Tuesday December 18, 9:03 am ET
Best Buy Earnings Rise 52 Pct in 3Q on Sales of Flat-Panel TVs, Boosts Full-Year Outlook
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- Best Buy Co., the nation's biggest consumer electronics retailer, said Tuesday its third-quarter profit jumped 52 percent, boosted by holiday shopping and sales of higher-ticket items such as flat-panel TVs. The results beat Wall Street expectations and the company boosted its outlook for the year.
Its shares rose more than 2 percent in premarket trading.
Profit for the quarter ended Dec. 1 rose to $228 million, or 53 cents per share, from $150 million, or 31 cents per share in the prior-year period.
Revenue rose 17 percent to $9.93 billion, from $8.47 billion last year.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial predicted a profit of 41 cents per share on revenue of $9.44 billion. The earnings estimates typically exclude one-time items.
Same-store sales rose 6.7 percent, helped by higher average selling price and a calendar shift that added an extra week of holiday shopping to the quarter. Same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least fourteen months, is a key indicator of retail performance since it measures growth at existing stores rather than newly opened ones.
Results were helped by a shift toward higher-ticket items such as video-game consoles, notebook computers, flat-panel TVs and GPS devices.
The company boosted its fiscal 2008 earnings outlook to between $3.10 and $3.20 per share, from a previous range of $3 to $3.15 per share. The company expects revenue of about $40 billion for the year.
When I heard the media reporting that the Barron's cover story this weekend was a piece warning investors that shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) were overvalued, I was both surprised and in agreement. I think many publications would avoid panning Berkshire's investment merits, even if they believe the stock to be too high, just because we are talking about the greatest investor who has ever lived. On the other hand, the case that BRK is overvalued is pretty strong, so from that standpoint, Barron's might be doing investors a favor by pointing it out.
I didn't read the full article, but the news wires are reporting that Barron's concluded that BRK is about 10% overvalued at current levels. I decided to take a quick look at the stock's valuation to see if I agreed with that. I was already aware that Berkshire's P/E was well above 20, which is why I do not own any shares in the company, but at that same time, one could surely argue that most of Berkshire's value should not be measured using a P/E ratio. As a result, I did some quick number crunching using book value rather than earnings per share.
The reason for using book value is quite simple. A majority of Berkshire's net worth comes from stock holdings in public companies as well as operating businesses (from which most of the net income is derived from the insurance business). Insurance companies are valued using price-to-book ratios (typically they garner a ratio slightly above one) and common stock investments can be valued easily using current market values.
As of September 30th, Berkshire's book value was $120 billion. Of this, more than half ($66 billion) lies in the company's stock holdings. That leaves $54 billion in book value from Berkshire's operating businesses. If they were solely in the insurance business, I might assign a price-to-book value of somewhere around 1.2x to them, but Berkshire is more than just insurance. As a result, you could conclude that Berkshire's operations should be valued at two times book, so let's use that number.
Quick math nets us a value for Berkshire of $174 billion (2 x $54b + $66b). At Berkshire's current quote of $137,000 per share, that would make BRK about 18% overvalued, even more than the Barron's estimate. Buffett clearly is worth a premium for most investors, but at the very least, Berkshire stock hardly looks like a bargain after a huge move upward in recent months.
Full Disclosure: No position in Berkshire Hathaway at the time of writing
That is not a misprint. There are banks in this country that are raising their dividends. U.S. Bancorp (USB) now yields more than 5% on the new annual payout of $1.70 per share. The lack of worry on their part stems from a very conservative business model. They are simply content growing at a slower rate, and avoiding aggressive lending practices, as opposed to the strategies that other large banks have adopted in recent years. This is evident from USB's press release, which points out the company has raised its dividend for 36 straight years, and has paid one in 145 consecutive years.
If you are looking for a high yielding, lower risk bank stock, USB is a solid option in the second tier of companies (large banks, but not the giant banks). Warren Buffett recently upped his stake in the firm, so he obviously likes management here quite a bit. The stock isn't dirt cheap at 12 times forward earnings and about 3 times book value, but sometimes you have to pay a bit more for safety, and the stock certainly is not overpriced by any means. Take a look at it if you want to venture outside the Big 3 in domestic banking.
Full Disclosure: No position in USB at the time of writing
The media tends to over-hype news. Things are presented as better than they really are in good times and worse than reality in bad times. Recent worries about money market funds that have invested in subprime mortgage-backed securities are just one example. There has been speculation that small investors face the possibility of losing significant amounts of money in their money market investments, despite the appearance of such funds as being very low risk in nature.
Yesterday we learned that in fact Bank of America (BAC) was shutting down a $34 billion money market fund. The headlines were grim, but once one actually reads the facts of the situation, it is apparent that it is no big deal at all.
First of all, the fund in question is not a typical money market fund. It was an "enhanced" fund that knowingly took on more risk than the average money fund, hence the subprime exposure. As a result, only institutions were allowed to invest (since they understood the risks were greater) and the minimum investment was $25 million, so individual investors are not exposed.
Secondly, and more importantly, the losses the fund sustained before being shut down by BofA were barely noticeable. Investors in the fund were able to redeem their shares at a rate of 99.4 cents on the dollar. That's right, despite the gloomy headlines in the media, investors in this risky fund lost less than 1 percent of their original investment. And this fund was risky!
So for all of you out there who are spooked about money market funds, perhaps this data point can ease your concerns.
Full Disclosure: Long shares of Bank of America at the time of writing
The wires are reporting that the White House is working on a plan that would freeze rates on adjustable rate mortgages for certain borrowers, in an attempt to help curb the rapid increase in home foreclosures expected in coming months. While it certainly will help the situation, consider a slide from Countrywide's Keynote Presentation at the 37th Annual Bank of America Investment Conference in September which showed the following:
Causes of Foreclosure (July 2007)
58.3% Curtailment of income
13.2% Illness/Medical
8.4% Divorce
6.1% Investment property/Unable to sell
5.5% Low regard for property ownership
3.6% Death
1.4% Payment adjustment
3.5% Other
Very interesting...
The last time I wrote about the investment merits of Dell (DELL) was six months ago on May 31st. At that time, Dell stock was trading around $28 and my piece entitled "Round Two from Round Rock: 8800 Layoffs at Dell" concluded that the stock wasn't quite cheap enough to peak my interest, and that a valuation range of $29 to $33 per share looked reasonable if the company did a decent job starting to turn things around.
Last week Dell hosted its first conference call in ages (they had refrained from issuing earnings numbers due to a probe into stock options practices) which was met with high anticipation but some disappointment due to lack of specifics as to forward guidance. The stock fell hard from the high 20's to the mid 20's and now sits at $24 per share. At these prices, I think Dell shares have limited downside and quite solid upside potential. Today's announcement of a $10 billion stock buyback (repurchases were also halted as a result of the options investigation) only furthers that view.
I was vocal about my concern regarding Dell's recently unveiled strategy of venturing into the retail channel due to assumed margin hits that will be taken to get their products into stores like Staples and Wal-Mart, but the company seems to have a renewed focus on efficiency and execution now that Michael Dell is back as CEO. I'm still not thrilled with the retail strategy (it seems like they are choosing market share over profits), but the company assured investors last week that the retail model is profitable for them, so investors can hope that a new customer base will also buy directly from the company in the future, should they like their retail purchases. Therefore, the company could ultimately benefit even more from the retail strategy down the road.
With Dell shares trading at only 14 times forward earnings estimates, I think the risk/reward in the stock is quite favorable at the current $24 quote. Upside of more than 20% seems reasonable over the next 12 to 18 months should they succeed in turning things around.
Full Disclosure: Long shares of Dell at the time of writing
