Comments on: U.S. Economy: Widespread Recession or Financial System Crisis? http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2008/09/us-economy-widespread-recession-or.html Chad Brand's stock market and investing blog Fri, 12 Mar 2010 20:02:35 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Ryan Barnes http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2008/09/us-economy-widespread-recession-or.html/comment-page-1#comment-1012 Ryan Barnes Wed, 24 Sep 2008 20:17:00 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=642#comment-1012 The 34% only seems high in proportion to the 2008 figure. If we were to back out even a modest percentage of the writedowns against earnings for financials this year, we could substantially lift S&P earnings for 08, which would of course put the 09 estimates on a normalized path.<br/><br/>Biggest risk now seems to be the earnings estimates for tech, telecom, and consumer stocks. There could be meaningful downward revisions heading into vital 4th Qtr.<br/><br/>Cheers,<br/><br/>Ryan The 34% only seems high in proportion to the 2008 figure. If we were to back out even a modest percentage of the writedowns against earnings for financials this year, we could substantially lift S&P earnings for 08, which would of course put the 09 estimates on a normalized path.

Biggest risk now seems to be the earnings estimates for tech, telecom, and consumer stocks. There could be meaningful downward revisions heading into vital 4th Qtr.

Cheers,

Ryan

]]> By: ryan http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2008/09/us-economy-widespread-recession-or.html/comment-page-1#comment-1011 ryan Tue, 23 Sep 2008 22:19:00 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=642#comment-1011 I agree a 34% increase seems a bit indulgent. I agree a 34% increase seems a bit indulgent.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2008/09/us-economy-widespread-recession-or.html/comment-page-1#comment-1010 Anonymous Tue, 23 Sep 2008 17:47:00 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=642#comment-1010 I wish I could believe that.<br/><br/>Financials are the backbone of the economy.<br/><br/>If anything keeps them red long enough - especially fear - others will inevitably crash as well; and it would be rather fast than slow.<br/><br/>Also...at least once a day now there is an article stating something along the lines that the current problem started when financials got so big that nobody knew anymore what assets exactly they were holding and at what risk. <br/><br/>This also describes the state in most other industries. <br/><br/>Pharmaceuticals, healthcare, energy, IT - you name it.<br/><br/>People just don't want to see it. I wish I could believe that.

Financials are the backbone of the economy.

If anything keeps them red long enough – especially fear – others will inevitably crash as well; and it would be rather fast than slow.

Also…at least once a day now there is an article stating something along the lines that the current problem started when financials got so big that nobody knew anymore what assets exactly they were holding and at what risk.

This also describes the state in most other industries.

Pharmaceuticals, healthcare, energy, IT – you name it.

People just don’t want to see it.

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