Comments on: Why An Obama Victory Does Not Foretell Economic & Market Gloom http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2008/11/why-obama-victory-does-not-foretell.html Stock market and investing blog published by Chad Brand, Founder/President of Peridot Capital Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:26:23 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Bobby http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2008/11/why-obama-victory-does-not-foretell.html/comment-page-1#comment-1080 Bobby Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:28:00 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=667#comment-1080 I just love this blog and it's for articles like this one that I do.<br/><br/>While at 3/4 of it I was surprised Chad might be taking a stand for Democrats today and especially by such airy arguments...and then it all fell in place.<br/><br/>Make it big letters, Chad...most of the people I know make little to no difference between correlation and causation!<br/><br/>Stronger economy during democratic rule does NOT mean better economy handling by democrats.<br/><br/>Lower crime levels do not neccessarily mean better police.<br/><br/>And - they might kill me for that - withdrawing from Iraq is not neccessarily going to work out better for the peaceful Americans (as they claim and as Obama promises them).<br/><br/>We all make [incorrect] assumptions sometimes, but God some people live by assumptions and not only that they BELIEVE they are right! I just love this blog and it’s for articles like this one that I do.

While at 3/4 of it I was surprised Chad might be taking a stand for Democrats today and especially by such airy arguments…and then it all fell in place.

Make it big letters, Chad…most of the people I know make little to no difference between correlation and causation!

Stronger economy during democratic rule does NOT mean better economy handling by democrats.

Lower crime levels do not neccessarily mean better police.

And – they might kill me for that – withdrawing from Iraq is not neccessarily going to work out better for the peaceful Americans (as they claim and as Obama promises them).

We all make [incorrect] assumptions sometimes, but God some people live by assumptions and not only that they BELIEVE they are right!

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2008/11/why-obama-victory-does-not-foretell.html/comment-page-1#comment-1079 Anonymous Tue, 04 Nov 2008 20:46:00 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=667#comment-1079 That'd take a pretty serious multivar regression with lagged variables etc. to statistically prove. Off the cuff and without any substantiating evidence, I agree with you though Anon. That’d take a pretty serious multivar regression with lagged variables etc. to statistically prove. Off the cuff and without any substantiating evidence, I agree with you though Anon.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2008/11/why-obama-victory-does-not-foretell.html/comment-page-1#comment-1078 Anonymous Tue, 04 Nov 2008 19:57:00 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=667#comment-1078 I submit that this historical outperformance probably comes from the phenomenon whereby Democratic candidates are voted in during times of economic turmoil, when stocks have probably been doing poorly amid weak economic conditions (and when people are looking for more help from the government). Thus, Democrats have generally had more of a tailwind in terms of lower beginning-of-term valuations, which bias these statistics upward.<br/><br/>Look at who is elected today. It is likely to be Obama, but McCain would face the same tailwind from starting valuations. With stocks at their current valuation levels, it is almost a no brainer that they will experience above-average performance from here. Unless the country collapses into chaos, that is… I submit that this historical outperformance probably comes from the phenomenon whereby Democratic candidates are voted in during times of economic turmoil, when stocks have probably been doing poorly amid weak economic conditions (and when people are looking for more help from the government). Thus, Democrats have generally had more of a tailwind in terms of lower beginning-of-term valuations, which bias these statistics upward.

Look at who is elected today. It is likely to be Obama, but McCain would face the same tailwind from starting valuations. With stocks at their current valuation levels, it is almost a no brainer that they will experience above-average performance from here. Unless the country collapses into chaos, that is…

]]>