http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2009/07/meredith-whitneys-buy-goldman-sachs-call-lifts-market-but-comes-a-little-late.html Stock market and investing blog published by Chad Brand, Founder/President of Peridot Capital Sat, 11 Feb 2012 23:26:23 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2009/07/meredith-whitneys-buy-goldman-sachs-call-lifts-market-but-comes-a-little-late.html/comment-page-1#comment-1597 Chad Brand Tue, 14 Jul 2009 15:25:56 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=1389#comment-1597 I agree it can (and will) go higher. After all, the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator and therefore should peak after GDP troughs. Still, if we go from -6 GDP to -3 to flat, don't you think job losses will moderate meaningfully? When the recession began in December 2007 unemployment was 5%, versus 9.5% today. Getting to 13-14% implies we are only halfway there so far. I just think we will see the rate of change decelerate over the next 18 months (versus staying the same) as we head toward flat or slightly positive GDP. I agree it can (and will) go higher. After all, the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator and therefore should peak after GDP troughs. Still, if we go from -6 GDP to -3 to flat, don’t you think job losses will moderate meaningfully? When the recession began in December 2007 unemployment was 5%, versus 9.5% today. Getting to 13-14% implies we are only halfway there so far. I just think we will see the rate of change decelerate over the next 18 months (versus staying the same) as we head toward flat or slightly positive GDP.

]]> http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2009/07/meredith-whitneys-buy-goldman-sachs-call-lifts-market-but-comes-a-little-late.html/comment-page-1#comment-1596 uhuh Tue, 14 Jul 2009 14:20:01 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=1389#comment-1596 There are typos on your post, tisk tisk. but more important, just because we have positive gdp growth after such a large drop does not indicate unemployment cannot go higher. There is no logic to your thought there. There are typos on your post, tisk tisk. but more important, just because we have positive gdp growth after such a large drop does not indicate unemployment cannot go higher. There is no logic to your thought there.

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