Comments on: Analyst Silliness with Research in Motion http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2009/11/analyst-silliness-with-research-in-motion.html Chad Brand's stock market and investing blog Fri, 12 Mar 2010 20:02:35 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Chad Brand http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2009/11/analyst-silliness-with-research-in-motion.html/comment-page-1#comment-1716 Chad Brand Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:16:24 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=1479#comment-1716 I agree about the competition, Senan. I like RIMM's brand and their stronghold on the enterprise segment, but other firms clearly have a lot of competitors to worry about. I'm working on a post re: Motorola, for instance, which would be a company I am not very positive on for that reason. I agree about the competition, Senan. I like RIMM’s brand and their stronghold on the enterprise segment, but other firms clearly have a lot of competitors to worry about. I’m working on a post re: Motorola, for instance, which would be a company I am not very positive on for that reason.

]]> By: Senan http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2009/11/analyst-silliness-with-research-in-motion.html/comment-page-1#comment-1714 Senan Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:20:52 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=1479#comment-1714 It's had a nice little bounce to todays $64, so good call. I think mobile is a huge growth area for the future but what puts me off is the plethora of companies operating in the space. Each is biting at the nexts heals. Some consolidation may be on the cards? It’s had a nice little bounce to todays $64, so good call. I think mobile is a huge growth area for the future but what puts me off is the plethora of companies operating in the space. Each is biting at the nexts heals. Some consolidation may be on the cards?

]]> By: Jeff http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2009/11/analyst-silliness-with-research-in-motion.html/comment-page-1#comment-1708 Jeff Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:49:52 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=1479#comment-1708 Chad, Perhaps RIMM's decline is linked in with Garnter's recent forecast that "Android will have moved up the most from 2009 to 2012, from sixth place to second. BlackBerry will have moved down the most, from second to fifth, while iPhone will remain in third position and Windows Mobile will remain in fourth position." Here is one article in this regard: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139026/Android_to_grab_No._2_spot_by_2012_says_Gartner Hope this info is helpful. Jeff Chad,
Perhaps RIMM’s decline is linked in with Garnter’s recent forecast that “Android will have moved up the most from 2009 to 2012, from sixth place to second. BlackBerry will have moved down the most, from second to fifth, while iPhone will remain in third position and Windows Mobile will remain in fourth position.”
Here is one article in this regard:
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139026/Android_to_grab_No._2_spot_by_2012_says_Gartner
Hope this info is helpful.
Jeff

]]> By: Chad Brand http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2009/11/analyst-silliness-with-research-in-motion.html/comment-page-1#comment-1707 Chad Brand Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:24:57 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=1479#comment-1707 If earnings really did dip below $4 in 2010 the stock is probably dead money from here, but below 15x EPS I would still think the risk-reward looked fairly good. I just don't see 2009 as being the peak in RIMM's profits. The smart phone market is growing fast enough that competition may slow their growth, but I don't think it necessarily halts it. If earnings really did dip below $4 in 2010 the stock is probably dead money from here, but below 15x EPS I would still think the risk-reward looked fairly good. I just don’t see 2009 as being the peak in RIMM’s profits. The smart phone market is growing fast enough that competition may slow their growth, but I don’t think it necessarily halts it.

]]> By: Bobby Kolev http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2009/11/analyst-silliness-with-research-in-motion.html/comment-page-1#comment-1706 Bobby Kolev Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:36:54 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=1479#comment-1706 I was reading the cut news this morning and thinking along the same lines. I too think the Droid success in particular is certainly overhyped. It's illustrated by a blog entry that hit my inbox the other day: "Motorola returns to profit even before the Droid release". As if it's granted that the Droid release will turn things around! Now, I do believe that in mid to long term Android *is* going to present a great deal of challenge to RIM and BlackBerry. First because of the sheer number of different devices that will employ it, second because Google will continue to push free services on it and finally because it's going to be picked up by manufacturers and carriers with strong corporate presence like Motorola and Verizon. But that's going to take time. This particular phone won't be the BlackBerry killer. In my opinion it won't be the iPhone killer either. I was reading the cut news this morning and thinking along the same lines.

I too think the Droid success in particular is certainly overhyped. It’s illustrated by a blog entry that hit my inbox the other day: “Motorola returns to profit even before the Droid release”.

As if it’s granted that the Droid release will turn things around!

Now, I do believe that in mid to long term Android *is* going to present a great deal of challenge to RIM and BlackBerry. First because of the sheer number of different devices that will employ it, second because Google will continue to push free services on it and finally because it’s going to be picked up by manufacturers and carriers with strong corporate presence like Motorola and Verizon.

But that’s going to take time. This particular phone won’t be the BlackBerry killer.

In my opinion it won’t be the iPhone killer either.

]]> By: Traciatim http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2009/11/analyst-silliness-with-research-in-motion.html/comment-page-1#comment-1705 Traciatim Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:26:22 +0000 http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/?p=1479#comment-1705 If the estimate were to be dropped by 20% thanks to the competition and the EPS went from 4.85 to 3.88 instead would you still be willing to buy it at $55 and 14 times earnings, or would you prefer if you grabbed it somewhere in the $38.80 - $46.50 range to get in to 10-12 times the new earnings amount? I really think that RIMM won't be able to ride the blackberry train for much longer and don't think the earnings will be there soon with the direction their competition is taking. If the estimate were to be dropped by 20% thanks to the competition and the EPS went from 4.85 to 3.88 instead would you still be willing to buy it at $55 and 14 times earnings, or would you prefer if you grabbed it somewhere in the $38.80 – $46.50 range to get in to 10-12 times the new earnings amount?

I really think that RIMM won’t be able to ride the blackberry train for much longer and don’t think the earnings will be there soon with the direction their competition is taking.

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