Biglari Exchange Offer Signals Inflated Stock Price of Warren Buffet Follower

Biglari Holdings (BH), in the company’s first major move since changing its corporate name from Steak ‘n Shake (read my last post about Biglari and Steak ‘n Shake), has chosen an uncommon method for completing its next public market transaction. Rather than use the company’s cash to acquire a minority stake in Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Biglari has offered to exchange shares of his own stock for shares in AAP at a ratio of 0.1179. Such a move is rare, but more importantly, it signals to investors that Biglari feels that his stock is at least fully valued and at most overvalued. Otherwise, he would have preferred to use cash rather than stock to invest in AAP. Smart capital allocators such as Biglari only have a reason to dilute their ownership stake if they are using prime currency. In this case, BH shares at nearly $400 each were certainly on the expensive side, at nearly two times book value.

Unfortunately, the market has reacted appropriately to this move by shedding nearly 10% from Biglari Holdings’ market value. Trading down into the mid 350’s, the exchange offer to Advance Auto Parts shareholders went from being an attractive option (originally representing a premium of about $1 per share) to being very unattractive (about a $3 per share discount). The markets in general are quite smart and they appear to have sniffed out Biglari’s intention of swapping an expensive stock for a cheaper one.

Why he did not opt to make this offer privately to one or a handful of existing AAP shareholders is baffling. By going public with the offer, he essentially ensured that his stock would get hit hard and reduce any interest in his exchange offer. Of course, the more Biglari makes headlines the more investors might start to read up on him and decide to invest in his company. That exposure could result in a fairly quick rebound in the stock price of Biglari Holdings, prompting more offers like this one.

Full Disclosure: No position in AAP or BH at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time