Archive for the ‘book reviews’ category

Book Review: Grande Expectations – A Year in the Life of Starbucks’ Stock

August 31st, 2007

Recently I was asked if I would consider reviewing a new book about coffee giant Starbucks (SBUX) entitled Grande Expectations - A Year in the Life of Starbucks’ Stock. I’m not a shareholder in the company, but I am very familiar with the loyal customer base they have been able to amass over the last fifteen years or so since the company’s 1992 IPO. Although I’m not a coffee drinker, my mother is among the millions who rarely go a day without visiting the neighborhood Starbucks store.

One of the reasons I agreed to read and review the book is because the performance of Starbucks over the last three years has been a valuable lesson for growth stock investors and I was curious to see what conclusions the author, Karen Blumenthal, would draw based on her research. As you may know, Starbucks shares have been dead money since late 2004 despite the company’s continued growth. Even in the face of the chain’s 20% annual growth rate, investors have been disappointed in recent years mainly because although growth has been strong, the stock’s P/E has been compressing, which more than offset any earnings growth.

Blumenthal essentially devoted a year to following Starbucks. She visited investors (both retail and professional), attended the annual meeting, met with analysts, and spoke directly with the company’s management team, all in an effort to find out what kept the Starbucks story ticking and what issues the company and its investors faced every day.

After reading Grande Expectations, it seems to me that there would be three main groups of people who might be intrigued by the work. The first group is the most obvious, Starbucks enthusiasts. The book does a great job of giving readers an inside look at the company’s history, how it operates, and what exactly management spends most of their time thinking about. If you want an insider’s perspective, Grande Expectations will likely be an enjoyable read.

The book is also being marketed as a investor tool to provide “unique lessons in understanding how the market really works.” On this end, I think it is important to distinguish between which type of investor would benefit from the book. I would recommend Grande Expectations for beginner investors who want to learn more about the basics of how the stock market works, how the industry players are related, and how various segments of the investment advisory business (research analysts, retail shareholders, mutual fund managers, etc) play a role in the investment process.

Blumenthal spends a good deal of time talking not about Starbucks specifically, but how, for instance, a research analyst following the company does his/her job, or how a mutual fund manager decides to buy or sell the shares. If you are interested in learning more about these players, in addition to learning about Starbucks specifically, then the book could be valuable.

Aside from Starbucks watchers and novice investors, I don’t think experienced investors, professional or individual, would learn a lot from the behind-the-scenes look the book offers. These people, myself included, already know how the industry operates and I found myself skimming through some of the book, including parts like one that explained Reg FD or the supposed wall between investment banking and sell-side research analysts. If you are looking for new insights as to how the pros do their jobs, in hopes that it will enable you to boost your investment returns, I would say that would only be case if you are not already an experienced investor.

Surprisingly (or not surprisingly given the author is a journalist, not an investor) the book really does not focus much on the reason why Starbucks stock has underperformed in recent years (P/E compression). Most of the investors cited in the book admit the P/E is high, but continue to hold or buy the stock because of the company’s consistent growth. This logic can be acceptable to an extent, and is the reason why Starbucks deserves an above-market multiple, but paying 40 or 50 times earnings eventually will come back to haunt you. Investors have seen this firsthand during the last three years as shares have moved sideways due to P/E compression completely offsetting earnings growth.

All in all, this book provides excellent insights for novice investors and loyal followers of Starbucks, but falls short in providing extremely valuable investment insights that could not be found in most other investing books already on the market. As a result, I would expect other reviews to be mixed depending on which perspective the reader has on Starbucks stock.

"The Long Tail" by Chris Anderson is Worth a Read

May 29th, 2007

If you ever wanted to read an interesting, in-depth explanation as to why many business ideas far exceeded expectations and became so successful (examples that come to mind include Amazon and eBay), I highly suggest you read The Long Tail by Chris Anderson, a book I just finished this weekend. The editor of Wired Magazine, Anderson explains why companies that have focused on the long tail of product demand curves, rather than only the most popular “hits” in categories such as movies, books, and music, have tapped huge levels of profitability despite far fewer units sold.

Advances in technology, the Internet in particular, have greatly enhanced our ability to distribute thousands more items than ever before. The result has been, and will continue to be, according to Anderson, a shift in customer tastes from hits to choice and selection. Niche markets, often ignored by large media companies, have become more profitable than bestsellers and companies striving to serve those markets well are thriving like few thought they ever would. The Long Tail is an excellent book for those who want to better understand how retailing is being revolutionized by technology, and which companies stand to benefit from these changes.

Finding the Next Starbucks – Part 3 – Compound Interest

April 27th, 2007

“Compound interest is the eight wonder of the world.” – Albert Einstein

The above quote leads off chapter two of Michael Moe’s
book, “Finding the Next Starbucks: How to Identify and Invest in the Hot Stocks of Tomorrow.” Although we learn about compound interest and the Rule of 72 in our high school math class, sometimes it takes some financial related calculations later in life to really drive the point home, enough so that it will have an effect on our saving and investment habits during adulthood.

Moe uses two compound interest examples that are worth repeating here. Although both cases are impossible to be recreated in the real world today, the dramatic numbers should at least intrigue people enough to run the numbers on their own individual financial plans. The results will still most likely be surprising for many of you.

Example #1

Purchase price for Manhattan Island in 1626 by Dutchman Peter Minuit: $24

Value today if invested at 5.0% annual rate of return: $2.7 billion

Value today if invested at 7.5% annual rate of return: $20.7 trillion

Value today if invested at 10.0% annual rate of return: $128.7 quadrillion

Example #2

You have landed a consulting job for the month of January. Your temporary employer has given you the option of earning $10,000 per week or earning $0.01 on the first day and having your daily pay double each day thereafter for the remainder of the month. Which payment plan should you choose?

Earn $10,000 per week for the month = $40,000

Earn $0.01 on first day, double every day = $21.5 million


While these examples are meant to be fantasy, not reality, compound interest is still a very important concept to consider when you are contemplating your saving and investing plans.

This post is the third in a multi-part series discussing the book Finding the Next Starbucks . You may read Parts 1 and 2 in the series below. Go ahead and subscribe to this blog if you want to be notified via email or rss feed when new posts are published.

Finding the Next Starbucks – Part 1

Finding the Next Starbucks – Part 2