Archive for the ‘food and beverage’ category

Biglari Exchange Offer Signals Inflated Stock Price of Warren Buffet Follower

May 3rd, 2010

Biglari Holdings (BH), in the company’s first major move since changing its corporate name from Steak ‘n Shake (read my last post about Biglari and Steak ‘n Shake), has chosen an uncommon method for completing its next public market transaction. Rather than use the company’s cash to acquire a minority stake in Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Biglari has offered to exchange shares of his own stock for shares in AAP at a ratio of 0.1179. Such a move is rare, but more importantly, it signals to investors that Biglari feels that his stock is at least fully valued and at most overvalued. Otherwise, he would have preferred to use cash rather than stock to invest in AAP. Smart capital allocators such as Biglari only have a reason to dilute their ownership stake if they are using prime currency. In this case, BH shares at nearly $400 each were certainly on the expensive side, at nearly two times book value.

Unfortunately, the market has reacted appropriately to this move by shedding nearly 10% from Biglari Holdings’ market value. Trading down into the mid 350′s, the exchange offer to Advance Auto Parts shareholders went from being an attractive option (originally representing a premium of about $1 per share) to being very unattractive (about a $3 per share discount). The markets in general are quite smart and they appear to have sniffed out Biglari’s intention of swapping an expensive stock for a cheaper one.

Why he did not opt to make this offer privately to one or a handful of existing AAP shareholders is baffling. By going public with the offer, he essentially ensured that his stock would get hit hard and reduce any interest in his exchange offer. Of course, the more Biglari makes headlines the more investors might start to read up on him and decide to invest in his company. That exposure could result in a fairly quick rebound in the stock price of Biglari Holdings, prompting more offers like this one.

Full Disclosure: No position in AAP or BH at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time

Steak n Shake Company Quietly Shifting to Berkshire Hathaway Business Model

February 1st, 2010

The Steak n Shake Company (SNS), an operator of 485 burger and shake focused casual dining restaurants in 21 states, has recently been quietly transformed by a new management team into a small Berkshire Hathaway type holding company. The move is very Warren Buffett-esque, with a 1-for-20 reverse stock split aimed at boosting the share price to well above normal levels (above $300 currently) and a bid to buy an insurance company among the noteworthy actions taken thus far.

What I find almost as interesting as the moves made by new CEO Sardar Biglari (a former hedge fund manager who has gained control of the firm and inserted himself into the top management slot) is the fact that this move has largely gone unnoticed by the financial media. Granted, Steak n Shake is a small cap regional restaurant chain ($450 million equity value) but the exact same strategy undertaken by Sears Holdings chairman Eddie Lampert garnered huge amounts of press.

Clearly Sears and Kmart are larger, more well known U.S. brands, but there seems to be a lot of interest from investors for any company trying to mimic the holding company business model that Buffett has perfected for decades. As a result, I would have thought Steak n Shake would have gotten some more attention.

Essentially, Biglari is using similar methods Lampert used when he took control of Kmart and later purchased Sears. Steak n Shake has dramatically cut costs, reduced capital expenditures, and will add to its store base going forward solely via franchising new locations, rather than building them with shareholder capital. The results have been impressive so far. During 2009, the first full year under new management, Steak n Shake’s free cash flow soared from negative $20 million to positive $31 million.

Biglari has made it clear that he plans to deploy the company’s capital into the best investment opportunities going forward, and that likely does not include heavy investments into the core Steak n Shake business. He has announced plans to rename the company Biglari Holdings (an odd choice if you ask me) and recently offered to acquire a property and casualty insurance company (the Warren Buffett comparison is worth noting here) but was rebuffed by Fremont Michigan InsuraCorp.

In the short term, Biglari and his fellow shareholders have reaped the benefits of his shift from a capital intensive negative free cash flow restaurant business to a more lean and efficient holding company. The stock has more than doubled from the $144 price ($7.20 pre-split) it fetched on the day Biglari took over.

The larger question remains how well this young former hedge fund manager can further deploy Steak n Shake’s operating profits in the future. At more than $300 per share, the stock trades for 1.6 times tangible book value of around $196, versus about 1.9 times for Berkshire Hathaway.

In my view, any price over 1.5 times tangible book value for an unproven concept and management team is too much to pay. However, given the results thus far it should come as no surprise that investors are willing to shell out more for the stock than they were previously, despite a lot of uncertainty over Steak n Shake’s future. Count me as one who will be interested in monitoring the situation going forward but would only take a flier on Biglari if the price to do so got cheaper.

Full Disclosure: No position in Steak n Shake at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time

Anheuser-Busch InBev Update: Nine Months Following BusinessWeek Recommendation

September 14th, 2009

Back in December I was fortunate enough to be chosen by the editors to provide BusinessWeek magazine a value stock idea for their annual investment guide issue. My selection, beer giant Anheuser-Busch InBev, was controversial at the time due to the just-completed buyout of A-B by Belgium’s InBev, but despite how disappointed many were with the deal (especially in St. Louis where I resided for ten years) the stock of the combined company was too cheap for me to ignore.

Nearly nine months later I figured I would publish an update to that investment idea given that many people read the BusinessWeek issue and some surely wound up purchasing the stock. Shares of Anheuser-Busch InBev (AHBIF) have more than doubled in value (+119%) since the issue hit newsstands, soaring from $21 per share to a current $46 quote.

AHBIFchart

The reasons for such a large move have turned out to be the very same arguments I made when I made the pick; the stock was deeply oversold after millions of new shares were sold to finance the A-B deal, and profit margins have increased smartly thanks to the synergies captured from the merger.

The company recently reported financial results for the first half of 2009. While revenue rose only 3% (the beer market is fairly mature in most parts of the world), normalized EBITDA rose 22% thanks to margin expansion. In fact, gross margin rose from 50% to nearly 53%, and EBITDA margins rose from under 30% to over 36%. Simply put, thus far the company has succeeded in hitting its post-merger operating goals.

The doubling of the share price has increased the equity market value of A-B InBev to $73 billion. Combined with $53 billion in net debt (much of which was borrowed to buy A-B and will be repaid in coming years with free cash flow), the stock’s enterprise value sits at $126 billion, or 9.8 times current run-rate cash flow. My valuation model back in December pegged a fair value price for the company at 10 times cash flow, so the stock now appears close to fair value of ~$47 per share.

As a result, Anheuser-Busch InBev stock is no longer dirt cheap. For investors who own large positions, it may be wise to consider paring it back. I have not sold it completely for my clients because there remains decent upside over the long term as the firm’s massive debt load is repaid. Every dollar of debt that is repaid (assuming constant operating cash flow) will translate into more value for equity holders.

Although the easy money has already been made, I think the stock will do fairly well longer term as the company de-levers its balance sheet and further integrates the two beer giants into one company. Translation: the stock is no longer a screaming buy, but rather a very solid hold.

Full Disclosure: Clients of Peridot Capital were long shares of AHBIF at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time