Comments on The Peridot Capitalist: Straight Talk from Buffett

I agree with the negative outlook on the dollar, b...

2008-02-11T08:43:00.000-05:00

I agree with the negative outlook on the dollar, but currency is not my forte by any means.

Until the U.S. gets a handle on its deficit and debt, the dollar will struggle to strengthen for any prolonged period of time. A democratic win in November could bring us closer to that becoming a reality (moreso than the Republicans for sure), but I haven't heard either candidate talk about balancing the budget on the campaign trail, so it might not even be important to them, unfortunately.

As for the international markets, I like them though you are right that I am primarily a U.S. investor. I would stress, however, that investors need to focus on valuation, not just hype and growth potential. The way to combine limited downside and upside potential is to not overpay for international markets with solid growth. Too many times people just buy what is hot and in the news, which can often be quite expensive and thus due for a large fall. You can find growth at a reasonable price in the foreign markets. Singapore is an example, for instance.

I think it was in that same interview, Buffet ment...

2008-02-10T22:33:00.000-05:00

I think it was in that same interview, Buffet mentioned that he is continuing to diversify out of the dollar. He has indicated that he continues to expect the US dollar to lose value over time, unless the trade deficit is corrected. As a primarily US investor, what is your take on the dollar and international investments?

Buffett is wrong. If this is not a credit crunch, ...

2008-02-10T13:21:00.000-05:00

Buffett is wrong. If this is not a credit crunch, I don't know what is. There are solid investment-grade companies borrowing at spreads of 250 bp over LIBOR, bank loans to good companies trading at 10-15% discounts to face value, the high-yield market shut down to many (risky) borrowers, etc. Buffett lives a different reality, one of a AAA borrower, and for him the all-in cost of debt is going down (because Treasuries and LIBOR have come down).