Apple Shares Continue to Ride iPod Success

The momentum investors on Wall Street have gotten ahold of Apple Computer (AAPL) and they most likely won’t be letting go anytime soon. After today’s $6 jump on a very bullish analyst report, AAPL shares have tripled in the past year from under $20 to more than $60 each. We can argue whether the stock looks pricey or not (many would say it does with $1.30 in estimated earnings per share for fiscal 2005, but don’t forget the $14 in cash and lack of debt), but investors want a piece of the reinvigorated company, whose iPod MP3 player is selling like crazy, and are willing to pay up for it.

Today, the Apple analyst with Piper Jaffray raised his price target to $100, with the stock trading in the mid-fifties. Looking simply at a price-to-earnings ratio, it’s hard to justify that price, but Piper has a 2006 EPS estimate of $2.30, ahead of the current consensus of $1.60 per share. Given the iPod’s ability to boost Apple’s profit margins, that bullish forecast could very well play out. The $100 target comes from the analyst’s estimated p/e ratio on those earnings of 44x. If one is to critique this target price objective, taking issue with the 44 multiple assumption hardly seems irrational, it seems very high. Little doubt though, that profit forecasts for Apple will turn out to be too modest.