Despite Headwinds, Record Short Interest Suggests Future Strength

Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange rose to record in the month through April 15, according to figures released in late April. The NYSE said short interest rose to 8.44 billion shares, up from the previous record of 8.42 billion shares on March 15, and was equal to 2.3 percent of total shares outstanding.

Despite $50 per barrel oil, higher inflation, and a Fed that many believe will continue to raise the Fed Funds rate to 3.5% or 4.0%, these numbers from the NYSE are too glaring to ignore. Bearish sentiment is one of the most reliable historical indicators of future price appreciation in the stock market. In fact, the 2005 short interest record shattered the mark set in late 2002. A quick look at what the market did after that makes the case even more compelling.