After a run earlier this month failed at $299 and change, Google shares finally hit $300 today, closing at $304 per share. This level has been the one I’ve been waiting for to lighten up on my Google position. While I am still bullish on the company, I think it is careless to not cash in a little bit of stock.
The $300 level equates to 45 times 2006 earnings estimates. This multiple seems fair given Google’s growth prospects and the ability of the current consensus EPS number to move over $7 as 2005 plays out. That said, it is a very high multiple. Only companies that are in a truly unique position are going to fetch such a price.
I continue to want exposure to the name in coming months. However, the time has come to ring the register. As a value-oriented guy, Google shares no longer present the “value” they did at $170 each. That said, I do not think they are overvalued given what we know today. If we get to 50x forward earnings, it might be time to sell off another chunk of stock.
It should be interesting to see how the future plays out, or more specifically, how high earnings projections can go. That will determine how long this rally continues.