Crocs Stopped Dead In Its Tracks

If you’ve ever owned a momentum stock, you know that things are a lot of fun, until the company misses a quarter. Investors’ love affair with trendy footwear maker Crocs (CROX) ended last week, as the company’s third quarter earnings release left much to be desired for the momentum traders hoping for yet another blowout quarter. The stock has been crushed to the tune of 45% in just 3 trading days and now fetches $41 per share, down from its high of $75.

After such a move, it appears that there might be an investment opportunity here if you have a good understanding and expertise of trendy fashions. For such opinions, I am not your guy, as I have no idea what the future for Crocs will look like and won’t even fathom an uneducated guess. Lots of people surely think the company’s shoes are merely a fad. However, if you disagree with that, you might want to take a look at the shares as an investment.

Here’s why. Last week Crocs issued 2008 guidance of 35-40% sales and earnings growth but that was not enough to keep the stock from tanking. If you believe in the Crocs story (that the company can continue to grow from here), the stock is only trading at 15 times the $2.70 earnings guidance the company has issued for next year. If 2008 will indeed bring investors 35-40% earnings growth as predicted, and the company can grow (at all) in the years after that, buying Crocs today around 40 bucks will actually prove to be a wise decision. I don’t know enough about shoes to feel confident in that view, but I bet some people do. If so, the stock might finally be reasonably priced.

Full Disclosure: No position in CROX at the time of writing