The forced selling and mass liquidations are continuing, with the pre-market futures trading limit down this morning. October has always been the most volatile month of the year, and investment fund fiscal years end a week from today (as opposed to a normal December year-end).
Don’t fool yourself into thinking the market action here is based on fundamentals, because everything we are seeing is simply irrational behavior based on forced selling. Buyers are balking because once things become irrational, there is no inherent floor to prices.
If you want to watch specific levels, the 2002 S&P 500 low was 768. The 2008 low so far was 839. The S&P 500 closed at 908 yesterday, and traded limit down (60 points) to 855 this morning. If we don’t hold those levels, another round of computerized sell programs will likely hit the market. The support there should be strong, but in this market, who knows what will happen.
Update: 10:00am — Here is a graphical representation of the last two decades: