Regrettably I was out of town for several days and as a result it has been awhile since I’ve posted anything. So, I decided to give you all a conservative trade idea now that the market has had a huge run over the last four weeks. We are definitely getting overbought here, so tread carefully.
Anyway, I am a big fan of arbitrage opportunities and I think there is a merger arb play right now with the pending merger between Merck (MRK) and Schering Plough (SGP). The deal should close by year-end and the agreed upon cash and stock ratio (SGP shareholders get $10.50 cash and 0.5767 shares of Merck for each SGP share they own) implies a total deal value of $25.76 for each SGP share. That represents a premium of 9.4% based on Friday’s closing prices for both stocks.
Normally, someone wanting to make this trade would simply short ~58 shares of MRK for each 100 shares of SGP they were long, wait for the deal to close, use the new Merck stock they receive to cover the short position, and pocket the 9.4% financial spread as profit. In this case, the actual return would be slightly less because Merck’s dividend yield is above that of Schering.
However, there is another way to play this (and a more profitable one) because Schering Plough has a convertible preferred issue (SGP-PB). This security pays a higher dividend than the common (7.1% versus just 1.1%) and converts into SGP common in August of 2010. By that time, it will actually convert into Merck stock, since Schering will no longer be an independent company.
The attractive thing about the convertible preferred is that it too trades at a discount to implied value upon conversion. The convertible currently trades at $210 but would convert into $214 of SGP stock if converted today. Add in the $15 annual dividend and the spread is even higher.
How would an investor play this? Simply by buying the SGP preferred instead of the common when simultaneously shorting MRK common. Rather than using common stock from the merger to cover the short, you can simply wait until the preferred converts into common in August 2010 to cover the short. In the meantime you can collect the 9.4% deal spread, a 7.1% annual dividend as well as the 4% spread on the convertible security.
Full Disclosure: Peridot Capital has positions in both SGP and MRK at the time of writing. Positions may change at any time.