Biglari Holdings Buys Maxim Magazine In Distressed Sale

There was a time when Steak ‘n Shake and Maxim magazine would have first brought to mind my college days, but oh my how things have changed. Now one of my largest investments, Biglari Holdings ($BH), owns both companies. Activist investor Sardar Biglari recently announced that the holding company he runs has acquired Maxim magazine from Alpha Media Holdings in a distressed sale. The purchase price was not disclosed, but media reports suggest a cost between $10 and $15 million. That is a far cry from the near-$30 million deal with another buyer that fell through late last year. Always a seeker of a bargain, Biglari appears to have picked up a solid brand on the cheap. The magazine, despite millions of readers and tens of millions in advertising revenue, has been losing several million dollars annually in recent years, so there is work to be done for this investment to pay off.

At first glance it may seem quite odd that the owner of Steak ‘n Shake, as well as a 20% stake in publicly traded Cracker Barrel (CBRL), would venture into the media business, but Biglari has made it known for years now that he aims to build a diversified holding company and will not shy away from entering any industry that offers the potential for significant profits. While he had hinted that an insurance company was on his shopping list, this deal should not surprise (or worry) close watchers of Biglari Holdings.

While success with Maxim under the Biglari umbrella is hardly assured, when you pay such a low price for an asset with a large readership and a strong brand among its core young man demographic, there are multiple levers you can pull to create value from the transaction. Biglari has shown he prefers strong brands (something both Steak ‘n Shake and Cracker Barrel possess) and there is no doubt that the Maxim name could find itself attached to far more than just a magazine cover over the next several years. Licensing opportunities could very well be a core part of Biglari’s future plans for Maxim. The recently launched Esquire Network cable television station is a good example of how media brands can be extended in order to broaden their reach and appeal.

If we assume Biglari paid approximately $12 million for Maxim, it is not hard to see how reasonable it is to expect that it could pay off in spades. If the company five years from now earned free cash flow of just $5 million per year, it would be a hugely successful investment that could be sold for many multiples of original purchase price, or Biglari could hold onto it long term and use the cash flow to fund additional acquisitions. As part of a larger comapny with more financial backing, it is likely that meaningful investments will be made into the Maxim brand, which could make that scenario a reality far easier than would have been possible within a struggling media company.

While some may be scratching their heads as to why Biglari made this deal, I believe it fits the exact mold that Sardar has been describing since he became CEO. As a result, I think the odds of success are likely far greater than casual onlookers may believe, and for that reason I remain as bullish on the company’s long-term prospects (and the stock) as I was before the acquisition was announced.

Full Disclosure: Long shares of Biglari Holdings at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time

Netflix Management: Our Stock Is Overvalued

It won’t get much attention since Netflix (NFLX) stock has been on fire this year and investors today are loving the company’s third quarter earnings report released last night, but Netflix’s CEO and CFO have actually come out and publicly warned investors that the stock price performance in 2013 (started the year at $92, opened today’s session at $388) is likely overdone to the upside. In their quarterly letter to investors published yesterday this is what they wrote:

“In calendar year 2003 we were the highest performing stock on Nasdaq. We had solid results compounded by momentum-investor-fueled euphoria. Some of the euphoria today feels like 2003.”

Let’s see what they are referring to. As you can see below, Netflix stock went from $5 to $30 in 2003:

NFLX-2003

And then in 2004 it peaked at $40 and fell all the way down to $10:

NFLX-2004

Netflix started 2013 at $92 and opened today’s trading session at $388:

NFLX-2013

 

In this case the company is executing very well but the stock price does not really make any sense. Shareholders beware.

UPDATE (11:55am ET): Netflix is currently trading at $328, down $60 per share from its opening price this morning. Maybe the company has actually called the top in its stock for now. Interesting.

Full Disclosure: No position in NFLX at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time.

Can AMC Networks Keep Up Its Winning Streak After Breaking Bad and Mad Men End?

AMC Networks (AMCX), the company formerly known as Rainbow Media that was split off from Cablevision in 2011, has been the epitome of a successful public market spin-off. Huge hits led by Breaking Bad and Mad Men have the company, which owns four national channels (Sundance Channel, IFC, and WE tv, in addition to the flagship AMC), on a roll with both viewers and investors. As you can see from the chart below, the stock has doubled in the two years since the shares made their stock market debut as an independent company.

AMCX

 

Bulls may want to consider taking some of their chips off the table. The final eight episodes of Breaking Bad premiere on August 11th and Mad Men‘s seventh and final season will air in 2014. After AMC’s two biggest hits, which essentially put AMC on the map after it shifted its prime-time strategy to original series (the channel used to be called American Movie Classics), come to an end the company’s executives will have large shoes to fill and a lot of pressure to do so. In fact, news that Breaking Bad creator Vince Gilligan is in talks about a spin-off show (sans main characters) is interesting because although spin-offs of popular shows are always intriguing from a networking exec’s perspective (case in point: Major Crimes debuted sans Kyra Sedgwick following the end of The Closer on TNT), they do not have good long-term track record (ask some of the Friends stars, for instance).

As a big fan of both Breaking Bad and Mad Men, I hope AMC can keep its winning streak alive. However, we know that television network ratings are cyclical and the bar is going to be set extremely high after Mad Men ends next year. With the stock up so much over the last two years, investors should understand that few networks have multi-year runs without hiccups, especially when they have to plug gaps in their show lineups after big hits come to an end.

Full Disclosure: No position in AMCX at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time.

Netflix and Tesla: Early Signs of Froth in a Bull Market

It is quite common for a bull market to last far longer than many would have thought, and even more so after the brutal economic downturn we had in 2008-2009. Only just recently did U.S. stocks surpass the previous market top reached in 2007. Although it does not mean that a correction is definitely imminent, the current stock market rally is the longest the U.S. has ever seen without a 5% correction. Ever. Dig deeper and we can begin to see some froth in many high-flying market darlings. Fortunately, we are not anywhere near the bubble conditions of the late 1990’s, when companies would see their share prices double within days just by announcing that they were launching an e-commerce web site. However, some of these charts have really taken off in recent weeks and I think it is worth mentioning, as U.S. stocks are getting quite overbought. Here are some examples:

TESLA MOTORS – TSLA – $30 to $90 in 4 months:

tsla

NETFLIX – NFLX – $50 to $250 in 8 months:

nflx

GOOGLE – GOOG – $550 to $920 in 10 months:

goog

 

You can even find some overly bullish trading activity in slow-growing, boring companies that do not have “new economy” secular trends at their backs, or those that were left for dead not too long ago:

BEST BUY – BBY – $12 to $27 in 4 months:

clx

CLOROX – CLX – $67 to $90 in 1 year:

clx
WALGREEN – WAG – $32 to $50 in 6 months:

wag

 

Ladies and gentlemen, we have bull market lift-off. My advice would be to pay extra-close attention to valuation in stocks you are buying and/or holding at this point in the cycle. While the P/E ratio for the broad market (16x) is not excessive (it peaked at 18x at the top of the housing/credit bubble in 2007), we are only 15-20% away from those kinds of levels. Food for thought. I remain unalarmed, but definitely cautious to some degree nonetheless, and a few more months of continued market action like this may change my mind.

Full Disclosure: No positions in any of the stocks shown in the charts above, but positions may change at any time

The Most Entertaining CNBC Segment Ever: Ackman vs Icahn

Yeah, I don’t think they like each other. It’s rare that two hedge fund titans are on the opposite side of such a controversial trade (Herbalife HLF) and in this case the result is an on-air feud. If you have any interest or follow Ackman, Icahn, Herbalife, and/or activist hedge funds, you might find this as entertaining as I, and many others in the industry, did on Friday when this altercation unfolded live on CNBC.

ackmanphoto

CNBC: Ackman vs Icahn 01/25/13 (27 min 39 sec)

Netflix Stock Repricing Overdone

Netflix (NFLX) stock is soaring this morning, up 36% ($37) to $140 per share in pre-market trading. The company’s fourth quarter financial results were above expectations, but at first glance do not appear to warrant a 36% stock price increase. Revenue rose 7.9% year-over-year, leading to a very small quarterly profit of 13 cents per share.

Investors are enthusiastic about Netflix’s addition of 2.05 million domestic streaming customers (up 8.2% versus the prior quarter), but that figure is a bit misleading as actual paid customers rose by just 1.67 million (+7.0%). Obviously, lots of free trial memberships are given out at the holidays, but how many of them convert to paying customers is a big question mark.

It was also a good sign to see operating earnings from the domestic streaming segment rise to $109 million in Q4, versus just $52 million a year ago. The DVD mail segment earned $128 million domestically for the quarter, which just goes to show you how much more profitable those subscribers are. The DVD mail business earned more money, despite having just 8.05 million paid subs, versus 25.5 million paid streaming subs.

Netflix continues to see subscriber losses in its most profitable segment and gains in a streaming business that has very high operating costs. Just how valuable a streaming customer actually is will remain an important issue for investors. Based on the stock’s rise this morning, you would think streaming customers mint money for the company. Conversely, Netflix reported segment profits of $4.25 per paid subscriber during the fourth quarter. That comes out to less than $1.50 per month in profit from the $8.00 per month in revenue they generate.

Back in August, with the stock floundering in the mid 50’s, I wrote an article on Seeking Alpha entitled “Netflix Is Finally Cheap.” I did not buy the stock, which in hindsight was a mistake since the analysis was correct. With the stock around $140 as I write this post, I can not justify an equity valuation of $8.25 billion for the company, so if you have played this stock correctly lately, you might want to strongly consider lightening up on your long position into today’s strength.

Full Disclosure: No position in NFLX at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time

More on Netflix’s Valuation and How the CEO Doesn’t Own a Single Share

Netflix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings has certainly done a wonderful job running the company if you look at his entire body of work, despite recent slip-ups, but his handling of the stock leaves much to be desired. Buying back stock over $200 per share only to raise capital at 1/3 the price a few months later shows he is losing the pulse of his business, at least temporarily.

So exactly how much stock of his own company does Hastings own? Believe it or not, none. Hastings has been cashing out Netflix stock options to the tune of tens of millions of dollars, but he does not actually own a single share. This year alone he exercised options (strike price: $1.50) to the tune of over $1 million per week, or more than $43 million. He halted those sales in early October after the stock cratered. It should be troubling to investors that the company’s founder and CEO does not appear to have any real skin in the game here. He has just given himself millions of options at prices that essentially ensure he can continue to cash out at will as long as the stock stays above $1.50 per share, which is assured as long as the company remains in business.

All of that said, there does appear to be potential value here with the stock breaking $70 per share, providing Hastings can make the streaming business model work financially. Netflix’s enterprise value today (about $4 billion) is attractive if the company can continue to grow and make money at their $8 per month price point. Assume for a moment that Netflix can earn a net profit of $1 per subscriber per month and maintains its current base of 25 million customers. That comes out to a profit of $300 million per year. Netflix could fetch a $4 billion valuation with its existing customer base alone. Any further subscriber growth from here would be icing on the cake for investors.

I think that is the main reason why T Rowe Price, TCV, and others find the stock attractive at current prices. There are definitely sizable risks, mostly the question of whether they can continue to grow with intense competition, and even more importantly, if the company’s business model will allow it to reach something on the order of that $1 per month profit on a per-subscriber basis. Given all that we know today, Netflix is a high risk, high reward investment opportunity, but one that many people are betting on.

Full Disclosure: No position in Netflix at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time

Netflix Makes New Moves to Try and Regain Momentum

Shares of Netflix (NFLX) are getting slammed today (down $4 to $70) after announcing $400 million of financing transactions last night, consisting of $200 million in new equity at $70 per share to T Rowe Price and $200 million in convertible zero-coupon bonds to venture capital firm Technology Crossover Ventures. This move comes on the heels of the company’s recent deal to be the exclusive home to new episodes of the comedy series Arrested Development, which was canceled after a three-year run on Fox despite a cult-like following and strong critical acclaim.

Netflix may be facing headwinds after customer backlash from their recent price increase, but CEO Reed Hastings is certainly not standing still. Getting the exclusive for Arrested Development is a smart move, as it will be harder and harder for Netflix to compete strongly without original, unique content. Amazon, which offers a similar streaming service through Amazon Prime, along with Apple, which will likely launch a TV product sometime in 2012, are serious competitors to the Netflix streaming business.

While Wall Street clearly does not like these equity and bond deals, I think it is really the best possible way for them to finance the costs of deals like Arrested Development. Selling zero-coupon bonds gives Netflix 0% financing and the bonds don’t convert until 2018, which is a long time for Netflix to build up their business.

I would also point out that TCV, the investor in this bond deal, is making an interesting bet here. By taking convertible bonds that pay no interest, they are making a large bet on the direction of Netflix stock, plain and simple. TCV’s break-even point on these bonds is $86 per share, 16% above the market price when the deal was announced and more than 20% above the current quote of around $70 per share. While investors are selling off the stock today, the fact that TCV is making a pure stock bet here could be viewed as quite bullish (as would the move by T Rowe to buy new stock at $70). If Netflix was really in dire need of this cash and few investors were willing to lend it to them, you can bet that TCV or any other possible financier would be demanding a bulky interest rate.

With Netflix stock down more than 75% from its high of $300+ earlier this year, this one is surely one to watch. Of course, it is very concerning that Netflix was buying back stock in the 200’s earlier this year and now finds itself needing money and selling new stock at $70 per share. Investors likely won’t tolerate this “buying high and selling low” set of actions again down the road. The future for Netflix really depends on whether they can continue to grow the streaming business and make money on it at $8 per month. If they can, there is plenty of upside here. If not, TCV and T Rowe are going to have some losses on their hands a year or two from now.

Full Disclosure: Long Apple and no positions in Amazon or Netflix at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time

Sticking To Your Convictions As A Value Investor Is Hard, Just Ask Whitney Tilson About Netflix

Back in December, Whitney Tilson, a fairly well known value investor with T2 Partners, published a letter outlining a compelling bear case for Netflix (NFLX), a stock he was shorting at around $180 per share. After seeing the position go against him, Tilson was feeling pressure from his clients. After all, shorting a high-flying technology company with a cult-like following, as it is soaring in value, can be a tough psychological exercise. Tilson’s argument for betting against Netflix was clear, concise, and thorough. He boiled it down to this, in his December piece entitled Why We’re Short Netflix:

“We don’t think there are any easy answers for Netflix. It is already having to pay much more for streaming content and may soon have to pay for bandwidth usage as well, which will result in both margin compression (Netflix’s margins are currently double Amazon’s) and also increased prices to its customers, which will slow growth.

Under this scenario, Netflix will continue to be a profitable and growing company, but not nearly profitable and rapidly growing enough to justify today’s stock price, which is why we believe it will fall dramatically over the next year.”

The main bearish argument seemed reasonable at the time; customers were moving away from DVD by mail and towards streaming content. In order to secure content for their streaming library, Netflix would have to pay more than in the past, when they could just buy a DVD once and send it out to dozens of customers. But at the time subscribers were signing up at a record pace and were highly satisfied.

In February Tilson threw in the towel. The stock had continued its ascent, rising to $220. Again, Tilson went public with his changed view, writing a letter called Why We Covered Our Netflix Short. The bulls loved the fact that Tilson was admitting defeat. The stock continued soaring and hit an all-time high of $304 in July. Tilson summed up his reasoning as follows:

Our short thesis was predicated on the following stream of logic:

1) Netflix’s future depends on its streaming video business (rather than its traditional DVD-by-mail business);

2) The company’s streaming library is weak, which would lead to customer dissatisfaction and declining usage;

3) This would either cause subscriber growth to wither or force Netflix to pay large amounts to license more content, which would compress margins and profits;

4) Either of these two outcomes would crush the share price.

We are no longer convinced that #2 and #3 are true.

This was interesting because very little in the way of fundamentals had changed at that time. Tilson cited three reasons why he was doubting his earlier bearish thesis:

1) The company reported a very strong quarter that weakened key pillars of our investment thesis, especially as it relates to margins;

2) We conducted a survey, completed by more than 500 Netflix subscribers, that showed significantly higher satisfaction with and usage of Netflix’s streaming service than we anticipated (the results of our survey are posted; and 

3) Our article generated a great deal of feedback, including an open letter from Netflix’s CEO, Reed Hastings, some of which caused us to question a number of our assumptions.

In hindsight these reasons seem even more suspect than they did at the time, but it is worth pointing out the mistakes anyway so value investors can learn from each other.

First, Tilson cited that Netflix reported a strong fourth quarter. Tilson’s bearish view was never predicated on Netflix blowing the next quarter. It was the longer term trend of rising content costs, which would give Netflix two choices; maintain a weak streaming library and risk losing customers, or pay up for strong content and be forced to either raise prices (which would hurt subscriber growth and reduce profitability) or keep prices steady and lose profitability that way. The fact that Netflix reported one strong quarter really didn’t make a dent in the bearish thesis.

Second, Tilson surveyed 500 Netflix customers and found they were quite happy with the service. Again, his thesis didn’t claim that current customers were unhappy (after all, they were signing up in droves in part because streaming was free with your subscription at the time). Rather, it was about the future and how those customers would react if Netflix had to either raise prices or offer less in the way of viewing choices.

Third, and this one was perhaps the most bizarre, Tilson was evidently persuaded by Netflix’s own CEO, Reed Hastings. I find this one odd because I have never seen a CEO on TV or elsewhere who was publicly negative about their company’s prospects, regardless of how good or bad things were going at the time. In fact, many investors believe it is a huge red flag when CEOs of public companies take time to personally rebuff bearish claims from short sellers. Hastings did just that, responding to Tilson’s short case with a letter of his own that suggested that he cover his short immediately. Generally speaking, the fact that the CEO of a company you are short thinks you are wrong is not a good reason to cover your short.

And so we had a situation where Tilson’s short thesis appeared sound, albeit unresolved, but the stock price kept soaring and he was feeling heat for the position, which was losing money. Then, just a few months later, Netflix decided to raise their prices and customers canceled in droves. Tilson’s bearish thesis proved exactly correct, but he no longer had the short bet to capitalize on it.

Today in pre-market trading Netflix stock is down about 30% to $83 per share after forecasting higher than expected customer cancellations, lower than expected fourth quarter profits, and operating losses during the first half of 2012 due to higher content costs, slowing subscriber growth, and expenses for the company’s expansion into the U.K. and Ireland. Analysts were expecting Netflix to earn $6 per share in 2012 and in July investors were willing to pay 50 times that figure for the stock. Now it is unclear if Netflix will even be profitable in 2012 after forecasting losses for the first “few quarters” of next year.

This is a perfect example of why value investing is a tougher investment strategy to implement than many realize, but offers tremendous opportunity to outperform. By definition you have to take a contrarian view; either going long a stock that people don’t like, or shorting a stock that everyone loves. The bottom line is that your analysis is what is important. If you do your homework and get it right, the market will reward you. It may take more than a quarter or two, but you need to stick to your convictions unless there is extremely solid evidence that you are wrong. In this case, Tilson’s bearish thesis was never really debunked by the CEO’s defensive posture or the fact that customers were satisfied when they were getting streaming content for free. In hindsight, Tilson understood the outlook for Netflix better than the company’s own CEO. However, both are likely feeling very uneasy this morning.

Interestingly, the question now may be whether there is a point at which Netflix stock becomes too cheap and warrants consideration on the long side. I suspect the answer is yes, though probably not quite yet. If the stock keeps falling and we see $60 or $70 per share, maybe the time will be right for value investors like Tilson to go against the crowd again and buy the stock when everybody hates it.

Full Disclosure: No position in Netflix at the time of writing, but positions may change at any time

UPDATE: 3:00PM ET on 10/25

The WSJ is reporting that Tilson initiated a small long position in Netflix this morning:

Mr. Tilson tells us in an e-mail that he bought the stock this morning after it tumbled 35%:

“It’s been frustrating to see our original investment thesis validated, yet not profit from it. It certainly highlights the importance of getting the timing right and maintaining your conviction even when the market moves against you. The core of our short thesis was always Netflix’s high valuation. In light of the stock’s collapse, we now think it’s cheap and today established a small long position. We hope it gets cheaper so we can add to it.”

Coinstar Shares Look Very Cheap After Guiding Down Earnings Expectations

Consumers should know Coinstar (CSTR)very well as the maker of coin counting machines found at grocery stores and more recently the owner of the Redbox DVD rental kiosks found in even more retail locations such as McDonald’s and Wal-Mart. I believe the stock, which has gotten hammered lately after an earnings miss for the fourth quarter, represents tremendous value. CSTR gives investors a rare combination of value and growth potential.

At around $39 per share (down from $67 late last year), Coinstar stock fetches only 6 times trailing cash flow. To put that in perspective, Microsoft sells for 7 times, Cisco for 8 times, and IBM for 9 times. Investors are clearly getting a valuation that is otherwise reserved for larger, slower growth businesses. This despite the fact that the company just reported that 2010 revenue soared 39% on the heels of a 50% jump in DVD rental sales (the more mature coin counting business grew by 7%). Despite giving more conservative guidance going forward after the company missed Wall Street’s fourth quarter expectations, Coinstar expects 2011 revenue to jump by about 24% with cash flow rising by 18%, as it continues to invest in growing the business. If management can deliver on these numbers this year (and after an earnings miss we should think they might give out forecasts they feel quite confident in reaching), the stock trades at only 5 times current year cash flow, unheard-of for a company growing like Coinstar.

Now, as with any investment, expectations and forecasts of future growth and valuation are not the only things to consider. Analysts would be quick to argue (and I would not disagree) that movie rentals are moving from disc-based to cloud-based, with the emergence of Netflix and other streaming platforms. Any market share gains that Coinstar’s Redbox kiosks might see with the pending bankruptcy of Blockbuster could very well be negated by more and more people signing up for Netflix streaming.

However, I still believe that the market for Redbox kiosks is bright, for two main reasons. First, with nearly 25,000 kiosks installed in grocery stores and retail outlets across the country, the convenience and cost ($1 a day) of Redbox rentals will make them attractive to both cost conscience movie watchers (if you only watch a couple movies per month you will likely opt for Redbox over an $8/month Netflix streaming plan) and those who enjoy the convenience of grabbing a movie on their way out of McDonald’s, Wal-Mart, or their local grocery store (just picture how easy children can convince mom and dad to get a movie for $1 before they leave the store).

The second reason I think it will be years before physical disc rentals will become completely obsolete is that there are still millions of Americans who are afraid of technology to a large degree (either due to things such as identity theft, or simply out of not being comfortable with operating high tech toys such as wi-fi enabled DVD players). To illustrate this point, let me share an encounter I had with a woman a couple of weekends ago.

After noticing that several Blockbuster locations were being liquidated near where we live, my fiancee and I decided to stop by and see if we could land any ridiculous deals (they were literally selling the store’s shelves as well as the DVDs sitting on them). Everything was for sale, and if you had a spare $350 sitting in your bank account you could buy the giant gum ball machine from your local Blockbuster store (we saw one being carried out by a man as we entered the store).

As I was perusing the aisles I helped explain the pricing structure to a woman in her 50’s or 60’s who was confused. We got to talking and she was mostly rambling about how disappointed she was that this store was closing because all of the other DVD rental places had also closed and now there was nowhere for her to go. I mentioned Netflix and she immediately dismissed it as a viable option “because you need a credit card for the box.” She was clearly confusing Netflix with Redbox, but the fact that she refused to use a credit card to rent a movie told me that Netflix would not be any better in her mind.

I bring this up because I think people like this woman are exactly the ones who will shun new technology like Netflix streaming. Eventually she will have to cave and start using Redbox for movie rentals most likely, and think about how many people like her there are out there. Not only that, but even if she felt comfortable using the Internet to order movies by mail (I don’t see her using Netflix mail order anytime soon, given that her explanation for why that wouldn’t work for her was that her printer has been broken for months and she can’t figure out how to fix it), I really don’t think she would proactively adopt such a technology when there are other “lower-tech” ways of getting a DVD such as Redbox (granted, a credit card will still likely be required).

In short, I think there will be room for both technologies for several years to come. While I subscribe to Netflix and have never actually used a Redbox kiosk, there are plenty of middle aged and older Americans who will. Not only that, but the Redbox kiosk in the grocery store I visit is often crowded with college kids as there are several universities in the area. Cost is probably the main factor there, as young kids can certainly operate Netflix streaming movies, but more likely lack the discretionary income to afford an expensive box with wi-fi and a monthly plan. So, there is definitely a market for Redbox with younger people too.

With Blockbuster in liquidation, Redbox should continue to grow, although Coinstar’s current stock price seems to not fully be factoring in such strong demand for their kiosks. I do not see any reason CSTR shares should not fetch 7-8 times cash flow, which makes a stock price of $60 quite a reasonable expectation.

Full Disclosure: Long CSTR at the time of writing but positions may change at any time