What Bull Market?

I’m still trying to figure out why I keep hearing investment strategists proclaiming that the bull market remains intact. Do these people really think we are in a bull market? Do the numbers support that conclusion? Does this market feel like it’s going gangbusters? I have to say “no” on both counts.

First of all, the market is down since the turn of the millennium, and we’re more than halfway through the decade already. I hate to break it to everybody, but the bull market in stocks ended in 1999. It was the greatest bull market of all time, lasting a full 18 years beginning in 1982. During that stretch, the S&P 500 returned an average of 19% per year and recorded only 1 down year (a 3% loss in 1990).

It takes more than a couple of down years to get the bull running again. If stocks average 5% a year for the rest of the decade (which I think is entirely possible, if not probable), the average return for the decade will be 2% per year. When stocks fail to keep pace with inflation, it’s not a bull market.

That said, there is no reason investors can’t attain double-digit returns in a bear market. It just means that index funds won’t do the trick. Superior stock selection will.