The current market rally has exceeded my expectations, both in duration and in strength. After such a move, am I correct in characterizing the U.S. equity market as overbought? Consider this astonishing statistic. We have now gone 66 straight trading days without a 1 percent drop in the S&P 500 in any given session (July 13th marked the last drop of such magnitude). During that three month period, the S&P has rallied more than 10 percent.
Now I have no idea what the record is for consecutive days without a drop of 1 percent, but given the current streak, I have little doubt we are getting quite overbought at these levels. Unfortunately, much like overbought stocks, just because markets are overbought, it does not mean the rise will stop on a dime. Nonetheless, I am waiting to commit new money to the market. Perhaps some quarterly earnings disappointment will provide attractive entry points for certain stocks in the coming weeks.